When it comes to sport success, there have always been debates around the overall impact the coach has on a team. In recent years sports fans have often used the New England Patriots as an example, with many fans stating that it was Bill Belichick‘s coaching that was most responsible for their success. Now that Belichick is at UNC and coaching a team that is 2-4 and fading fast, his previous success at New England has come into question again. All of this prompts the bigger question around coaches and their overall impact on a team, and if it really makes sense to regularly pay these guys tens of millions of dollars? In other words, are they really that good, or does a team’s success rely on many more factors than just the coach?
Examining “star “coaches and their success
We are seeing increasingly more football coaches being put on pedestals and receiving outrageous amounts of money, but are they really worth it? Lets take a closer look at some recent examples:
- James Franklin. Recently fired from Penn State after going 4-21 against top-10 opponents (a .160 winning percentage, 3rd worst in college football history). While Franklin regularly beat up average college football teams, Penn State provides the resources for championship-caliber teams and expect success against the nation’s best teams. The reality is Franklin’s record was abhorrent against the very competition he was specifically hired to beat. Side note: James Franklin said during his first interview after being fired that he will now “win a national championship somewhere else.” His comment sounds like a terrible excuse and makes you wonder what he did not have at a school like Penn State, which spared no expense?
- Billy Napier. The former Florida coach will walk away with slightly less money than Franklin (only $21 million instead of $49 million) after going 22-23 in four years, including 5-17 against ranked opponents. His original contract was for 7 years and $51.8 million.
- Jimbo Fisher. After winning a national championship at Florida State, he signed a $75 million contract at Texas A&M. While Fisher actually had marginal success, his teams only went a combined 45-25 while at A&M, hardly national contending numbers. Fisher also walked away with the biggest payout in college sports history, a whopping $76 million!
- Dabo Swinney. A former two-time national champion before the transfer portal and NIL, Swinney has struggled mightily once the playing field leveled. Swinney signed a 10 year, $115 million contract extension is 2022, though his record is only 33-15 since then. Yes, Swinney is still winning games, but hardly at the rate needed to justify his outrageous contract.
- Brian Kelly. Kelly signed a 10-year contract in 2021 and is making $9.4 million this season ($95 million total!), with 6 years and $58.2 million remaining on his deal that runs through 2031. Kelly’s record at LSU is 34-13 overall and 19-9 in SEC play, but his teams to date have not challenged for a national championship to justify his almost $100 million salary.
- Urban Meyer. This one is a little different, as Meyer is an example of how college hype can lead to a big pro coaching contract — one that ultimately blew up in Jacksonville’s face in less than a year. Meyer was hired by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021 for 5 years in the $50-60 million range, but he went 2-11 and was fired before the end of his first year.
The point here is not to call out every deficiency these coaches have, but to instead ask point blank what exactly are colleges paying for when they hire these coaches? While no coach is going to win a championship every year, expectations should be super high when doling out tens of millions of dollars, right? For example, James Franklin wasn’t hired to beat Slippery Rock, he was expected to be a national championship contending team every year — but he wasn’t. The same is true for all the coaches above, none were brought on to beat average teams, but instead expected to win annually at the highest level.
At some point decision-makers will need to be more prudent with their coach hires, and more realistic with what any one coach can do with respect to performance and overall team success. Many of the coaches who won previously when the deck was stacked in their favor, now struggle mightily competing on a more level playing field against other schools who know the transfer portal well, and have tons of NIL money to spend. When you are not guaranteed the top recruits, nor assured that once you have them they will stay at your school, it leads to all kinds of unrest currently being seen from college coaches finally realizing their team’s previous success might not have been all due to the coach. In fact, it’s quite possible little had to do with them — as might be the case with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Final thoughts
Colleges can’t keep paying football coaches tens of millions of dollars, then receiving both a marginal return on investment, and continue paying millions of dollars in buyouts after the coach is fired. How many strikes should college administrators get before being accountable to fiscally irresponsible contracts? With college football especially, previous coach icons are now regularly humbled when they no longer have a monopoly on the best talent, providing for a new look into the factors that mediate college football success.
drstankovich.com
