If you think college sports have changed dramatically over the last couple of years, imagine trying to predict what they will look like ten years from now.
That question is very relevant in this moment. The U.S. Senate just passed the Protect College Sports Act by a bipartisan 77–22 vote. The legislation would establish national rules governing NIL, athlete compensation, transfers, eligibility, health protections and other aspects of college athletics. It would also provide legal protection for certain rules established by college-sports governing bodies.
Supporters argue that college sports need stability. Athletes would retain a federal right to NIL compensation, revenue sharing would be protected, scholarships and post-eligibility medical coverage would receive additional protections, and schools would operate under national rules rather than the increasingly complicated system that has developed through lawsuits, state laws and NCAA regulations.
Critics see another side. Some athlete advocates and lawmakers worry that granting greater legal protection to the NCAA and conferences could restrict athletes’ economic freedom and negotiating power. The bill also notably does not resolve whether college athletes should legally be considered employees.
But perhaps the most interesting question isn’t what this legislation does today. It’s where college sports go from here.
What college sports could look like in 2036
What happens next with the Protect College Sports Act remains to be seen, but regardless of that decision college sports were already morphing into something very different than just a few years ago. Looking ahead, there are five distinct possibilities of what might happen next:
1. We stabilize where we are.
It is possible that today’s system simply becomes normal, similar to what are currently seeing. Athletes receive scholarships, NIL income and direct revenue sharing. The Transfer portal remains active, but becomes more regulated. Universities continue operating teams, conferences continue negotiating television contracts, and the NCAA maintains some authority. College sports would essentially become a hybrid: part education, part professional sports, and part entertainment business.
2. The pendulum swings back toward regulation.
Another possibility is that the past several years ultimately become remembered as the Wild, Wild West period, followed by a more calm and normal period. The Protect College Sports Act suggests movement in this direction. For example, the act would guarantee one transfer without losing eligibility (but sit out a year if the athlete transfers again), establish national eligibility standards, and provide greater ability to enforce certain rules. Competitive sports need rules to function successfully, and the great irony would be spending years eliminating restrictions only to spend the next decade rebuilding them.
3. We continue to move closer to professional sports.
Perhaps nothing stops the current momentum of professionalizing college sports. Athletes continue to make more and more money, revenue sharing expands, and players gain greater control over where they play. Assuming we go in this direction, there will be no more masquerading “college” sports as being amateur, as they will be professional in every sense of the word.
4. College sports separate from colleges.
Imagine Alabama football eventually operating through a separate business organization affiliated with the University of Alabama. The players still wear school colors and branding, and still play at Saban Field. In this model the athletic department and academic institution are separate. One organization exists primarily to educate students. Another exists primarily to produce elite athletic competition and entertainment.
5. “College sports” stops being one thing.
Perhaps football and men’s basketball eventually become “pro” sports, while other lesser revenue sports including soccer, wrestling, swimming, and volleyball remain as traditional college athletics. The Protect College Sports Act actually acknowledges this tension by including provisions intended to preserve women’s and Olympic sports as financial pressures increase.
Final thoughts
For more than a century, college sports operated in a fairly stable and predictable pattern — student athletes played for an athletic scholarship, rarely transferred, and were held to account in the classroom in order to remain eligible. Today, however, college sports are hardly amateur at all, with college football looking more like the NFL every year. Whether the changes were long overdue can be debated, but what is being witnessed today hardly resembles college sports from even 10 years ago. The Protect College Sports Act may bring some needed stability to the present, or at minimum keep important conversations at the forefront.
drstankovich.com
