Millions of kids compete in youth sports each year, but what are the odds of making it past high school to play in college? And for college athletes, just how many each year have the talent to eventually play professional sports? Most sport parents know the odds are low for each question, but do you know just how low? Granted, some parents see youth sports as simply a part of their child’s overall development, and don’t pay much attention to going far in sports. But what about parents who do see their child as athletically gifted? Should knowing the odds of making it in sports be something to consider? If knowing that information is important (and it should be), it is not difficult to find. The question then becomes if just a tiny percentage of kids eventually make it to college sports, and then an even smaller percentage of those athletes go on to professional sports, is this a path that you should actively pursue? And by “actively pursue” I mean putting all your eggs into one basket by means of dedication and prioritization of time, potential loss of other important life activities (academic clubs and activities for your kid, vacations as a family, etc.), and huge investment of money.
Making it to college sports from high school
According to the NCAA’s 2022–23 data only about 2% of high school athletes receive athletic scholarships each year, a number far below what most people would guess.
Baseball: About 8.1% of high school players make it to any NCAA division; only 2.4% reach Division I.
Boys Basketball: 3.6% advance to college ball, but just 1.0% compete in Division I.
Football: Roughly 7.5% progress from high school to college football, but just 3.0% to Division I.
Remember, while Division I is the goal for most high school athletes, even many D1 athletes are on partial scholarship, or no scholarship at all. In fact, only about 2% of high school athletes receive athletic scholarships, a number much lower than what many sport parents think.
So what is the big takeaway here? The vast majority of high school student athletes will end their careers before college, and for those few who make it to college sports many of those athletes will be walk-on (no scholarship), or partial scholarship (i.e. books). Now that you know this information, is it still wise to put all your efforts — and money — toward playing in college?
Making it to professional sports from college
If you thought the numbers were low when making it from high school to college sports, you might want to sit down before seeing how difficult it is to go from college to pro sports. Using the same NCAA data from above, here are the odds for baseball, basketball, and football:
Baseball: Of all NCAA athletes eligible for the draft, only 5.1% are selected by MLB teams.
Men’s Basketball: About 1.1% of all NCAA players get drafted into the NBA, but about 20% find professional, yet far less lucrative opportunities (including overseas, G League, undrafted routes).
Women’s Basketball: Roughly 0.9% of all women college basketball players make it to the WNBA.
Football: Around 1.5% of all NCAA football players are drafted into the NFL.
A more general stat underscores the steep odds of playing professional sports: fewer than 2% of NCAA student-athletes go on to compete professionally.
Final thoughts
While it is understandable to start thinking about future college athletic scholarships after your kid makes his first goal in soccer, it might be prudent to first learn the data relating to the difficulties related to athletic scholarships. With a 90-95% attrition rate, your child probably has better odds to do just about anything other than college and pro sports, including completing difficult a difficult college degree or landing a high-paying job (non-pro athlete) out of college. Playing sports at a high level is incredibly difficult, and even for the best athletes a potentially career-ending injury is always one play away. It is for these reasons that families learn about the realities of playing sports beyond high school, and make decisions grounded in reality and not just lofty dreams.
drstankovich.com
