The terms ceiling and floor are often used to describe potential performance in sports, where the ceiling is the maximum possible achievement, and the floor is the minimum (or worst) performance. As you might imagine, kids involved in youth sports have varying ceiling and floor levels, and it is important for sports parents to objectively assess these differences closely — especially if college sports are a future goal. Having a high ceiling is the most attractive quality for college coaches sizing up future talent, but if your child’s floor is really low (meaning his bad games are especially bad), that may be a red flag when it comes to recruiting.
Evaluating talent
What is the range of athletic talent that your child possesses? Is her ceiling far above the competition, or are her best days still right in line with other kids? And what about her worst days (floor level)? Are they still OK days, or are they rough days you really want to forget? Taking an objective look at how your child performs in sports will give you a better idea of her chances for being recruited, but this may be more difficult than you think. Below is a quick summary of the differences between high and low ceilings and floors:
- High floor, low ceiling: A player with this profile is very consistent and reliable, but doesn’t have a lot of potential to become a superstar. Their worst days are still good, but their best days aren’t significantly better.
- Low floor, high ceiling: This describes a player whose performance is inconsistent but has the potential for greatness. Their floor is low because they make many mistakes, but their ceiling is high due to immense talent and potential for growth.
- High floor, high ceiling: This is the ideal player, who is both consistent and has a high potential for improvement.
- Low floor, low ceiling: This describes a player who is inconsistent and has little potential for significant improvement.
As parents, we like to watch our kids succeed, and our inherent bias impacts our ability to properly gauge the ceiling and floor levels when they perform. For example, we often over-play a good day and make it a fantastic day, and we tend to tamp down bad days as “not her best.” It is understandable why we do this as we love our kids very much, but when we lose all sense of objectivity and begin to overplay talent while overlooking weaknesses, we create an unrealistic view of the odds for playing at the college level.
When it comes to Division 1 sports, not only does your child have to have amazing measurables (i.e. size, speed, strength, etc), he also needs to have a really high ceiling and floor. What this means is that your son’s best games (ceiling) need to be far ahead of the competition — and even on his bad days (his floor), he should still perform better than most kids on that same day. In fact, for truly talented young athletes, their floor is often higher than most kids’ ceiling.
So what are we talking about when we say “high ceiling?” You might think about these accomplishments as being the kinds of things you don’t normally see — no hitters, undefeated seasons, school records, and other similar incredible feats. While a having good day is nice, kids with a high ceiling in sports consider a “good” day as average, or maybe even an off day. Similarly, kids with a low floor experience days you would like to soon forget — multiple errors in the field, and strikeouts every time to the plate. Comparatively, kids with a high floor will likely still be the best player on the field — even if all star results aren’t there that day.
All of this information is important because it helps set realistic expectations for both kids and their parents. D1 college athletes almost always have an incredibly high ceiling, and their floor is usually better than most kids and their best days. Division 1 college athletes almost always an exceptionally high ceiling — and even their floor is typically better than most kids on their very best day.
Final thoughts
We all want to believe that our kids have the talent to be successful, and it is this hope that creates bias in our ability to objectively judge their abilities. When it comes to making it to play college sports, most parents are unaware of how high their child’s ceiling and floor needs to be in order to earn future opportunities. What this means is your child’s good days in youth sports need to be phenomenal, and her bad days still need to be pretty darn good. This type of athleticism helps explain the incredible talent college athletes possess, and why only about 5% of all high school athletes will ever play at the college level.
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